Econ_Sep_22

50 Europe

The Economist

September 22nd 2018

T ISapeculiarlymodernhabit to thinkof theMediterraneanSea

as a boundary. For over twomillennia, civilisations bled across

it and intermingled. Roman, Carthaginian, Moorish and Vene-

tian empires expanded primarily along maritime routes. It took

four days to get from imperial Rome to today’s Tunisia, but 11days

to reach Milan. The Sahara restricted contact between this Medi-

terranean Eurafrica and the regions to the south, but not entirely.

Astudy of 22 skulls fromRoman London found that fourwere Af-

rican, for example. The medieval wealth of desert trading cities

like Timbuktu and Agadez spoke of extensive north-south com-

merce. Later European colonialists penetrated, pillaged and par-

celled up the continent; African troops fought in the trenches of

the first worldwar; Europeans fought in Africa in the second.

Three subsequent events curbed this trans-Mediterranean-

ism. Europeanpowers leftAfricawithdecolonisation;manyAfri-

can states sought to be neutral during the cold war; Europeans

turned towards Asia’s booming markets as globalisation took

hold. Tellingly, the geopolitical buzzword of the moment is “Eur-

asia”. Europe and Asia are integrating along old Silk Road routes,

especiallyunderChina’s Belt andRoad infrastructure splurge, yet

“Eurafrica” remains relatively little discussed. Europe is too busy

rushing into Asia’s arms to embrace a continent on its doorstep

whichmay be evenmore significant in the long term.

Today’s waves of African migration are merely a prelude. Of

the 2.2bn citizens added to the global population by 2050, 1.3bn

will be Africans—about the size ofChina’s population today. And

more of themwill have the means to travel. Those Africans risk-

ing the trip north across the Mediterranean today are not the

poorest, but those with a mobile phone to organise the trip and

money to pay smugglers. Few of the Nigerians who attempt the

crossing are from their country’s poor north, for example; almost

all are from its wealthier south. As African countries gradually

prosper, migration will surely increase, not decrease. Emmanuel

Macron raised these points in a recent interview. The French pres-

ident was recommending a new book, “The Rush to Europe”,

published in French by Stephen Smith ofDuke University, which

models past international migrations like that of Mexicans into

America to show that the number ofAfro-Europeans (Europeans

with African roots) could rise from 9m at present to between

150mand 200mby 2050, perhaps a quarter of Europe’s total pop-

ulation.

The interdependence is growing in other areas, too. While Eu-

rope’s old Atlantic harbours stagnate, four of its five fastest-grow-

ing ports are on the Mediterranean (led by Piraeus in Greece).

Much of this is driven by Asian trade, but the African share is ris-

ing too, and will mushroom as the continent continues to grow.

Europe is increasingly reliant on Nigerian and Liberian minerals,

and German environmentalists dream of giant Saharan solar

plants feeding clean energy to Europe. The security situation on

one shore of the Mediterranean increasingly affects the other.

The chaos that emerged fromtheArab spring in countries like Lib-

ya prompted a surge in drug- and weapon-smuggling to Europe,

while terrorist attacks in Paris and Brussels in 2015 and 2016 were

mostly committed by young men of north African origin. Chat-

ham House, a British think-tank, predicts that the security of the

Strait of Gibraltar, which divides Spain from Morocco, will be-

come increasingly fraught.

leaders met in Salzburg on September 19th and 20th to dis-

cuss new border controls and north African “disembarkation

platforms” where migrants from the south could be processed

and sent back. The summit epitomised a strategy that Mr Smith

dubs “Fortress Europe”, which involves reducing migration from

north Africa at almost any human cost, letting in merely a trickle

ofapprovedAfricanmigrants, bickeringoverwho should accom-

modate them and then, as recompense, funnelling modest aid

into Africa. AngelaMerkel promotes a “Marshall Plan for Africa”,

as a means of reducing migration. That reckons without the fact

that economic development will raisemigration numbers.

The scramble for Europe

There is an alternative “Eurafrica” strategy, writes Mr Smith. This

is to accept the integration ofAfrica and Europe. Alex deWaal, an

Africa expert at Tufts University, agrees that is the only realistic

course. “The logic ofhistory is a European-Mediterraneanmarket

thatwill cross the Sahara, too,” he says. “The challenge is to recog-

nise that reality and make it a mutually beneficial and regulated

one. Building walls will not work.” This, so he contends, means

increasing Europe’s role as a supporter of, andmodel for, a multi-

lateral Africa: backing blocs, based on the

, which are either

continental (such as the African Union) or regional (like the East

AfricanCommunity and the EconomicCommunityofWest Afri-

can States).

It also means creating regulated routes for migrants travelling

inbothdirections. Over the century, Europeandistricts that today

have a Eurafrican character—parts of Barcelona, Marseille, Brus-

sels and London, say—will become more the norm than the ex-

ception. “African migrants will provide a significant part of the

European workforce, so we need to ask what part of the work-

force and what sort of training we need to provide,” says Mr de

Waal. African music and food will become more prominent in

European cultural and culinary diets. Meanwhile Lagos, Casa-

blanca, Nairobi and Kinshasa would receive their own influxes

of European businesses, politicians and fortune-seekers.

The two options, Fortress Europe versus Eurafrica, may one

day end up as a choice between denial and reality. Europe cannot

insulate itself fromthe dramatic long-termshifts in its continental

neighbour. Like it or not, Eurafrica is part of Europe’s demo-

graphic and cultural destiny. It is better, surely, not to ignore or re-

ject this but toworkout how tomake it a success.

The rebirth of Eurafrica

Europe should focus onmanaging its growing interdependencewithAfrica

Charlemagne