Econ_Sep_22

The Economist

September 22nd 2018

Middle East and Africa 45

training for all-out war. One mid-ranking

IDF

field commander says “it’s true that the

tempo of exercises has gone up” but many

of them are disrupted or cancelled “by ur-

gent duty when Palestinians begin rioting

inGaza or theWest Bank.”

Does it matter if the

IDF

is less than

ready to fight a major war? Though Israel

seems further from achieving a two-state

peace deal with the Palestinians than at

any point since the Oslo accords 25 years

ago, it has seldom felt as secure in the re-

gion. Two of its once mortal enemies,

Egypt and Jordan, are now allies. Syria’s

army has been torn to shreds by civil war.

Only on the border with Lebanon does Is-

rael face a potent foe, in Hizbullah. In 2006

this militia-cum-political party fought Isra-

el to a stalemate in a war on the border.

Now, bloodied from its involvement in the

Syrian war on the side of the regime, its

fighters are experienced veterans.

IDF

offi-

cers mutter that Hizbullah’s forces are

more seasoned than their own.

These question-marks over the army’s

preparedness come at an awkward time

for the generals. The

IDF

is set to launch a

controversial plan to shorten the manda-

tory conscription period of 32 months for

men, while offering enticing contracts to

key personnel it wants to keep for longer

periods. Critics say this jeopardises the

IDF

’s ethos of a “people’s army”.

At the same time, the generals have

been blindsided by Binyamin Netanyahu,

the prime minister, who has just proposed

his own “

IDF

2030” programme, envisag-

ing more spending on long-range missiles,

cyber-warfare and intelligence gathering,

instead of beefing up ground forces. Mr

Netanyahu, who served as a commando

officer 50 years ago, has often expressed

impatience with the large armoured divi-

sions of the regular army, and has always

wantedmore cash for sophisticated intelli-

gence, special forces and the air force.

As Israelis observed Yom Kippur, the

Day ofAtonement, this year on September

18th-19th, they may have reflected on the

national trauma of1973. Then, Israel’s lead-

ers failed to heed warnings by the head of

Mossad, Israel’s intelligence service, that

neighbouring Arab armies were planning

to attackon the Jews’ holiest day. Israel ulti-

mately won that war, but only after suffer-

ing heavy casualties and a blow to its self-

confidence. It serves as a reminder that

even the best intelligence can be useless

when not backed by shrewd leadership

andwell-trainedmen on the ground.

ITH the grim spectre of a Russian-

backed assault hanging over the Syri-

an rebels’ last redoubt in Idlib, the prov-

ince’s civilians had begun to prepare for

the worst. Some had stocked crude under-

ground shelters with pickled vegetables,

even though many already struggle to find

enough food to eat. Others had fashioned

homemade gas-masks from cotton, char-

coal and paper cups, fearing the regime

would use chemical weapons.

For weeks an offensive to retake Idlib

had seemed imminent. Russia had ex-

panded its naval fleet off Syria’s coast. Re-

gime troops had beenmassing at the edges

of the province. Russian and Syrian aircraft

had begun to bomb rebel targets and de-

stroyhospitals. Turkey, whichbacks the op-

position, sent tanks to its border. The

warned that the biggest humanitarian ca-

tastrophe of the centurywas looming.

For the moment, however, diplomacy

has prevailed. On September 17th Turkey

and Russia agreed to establish a buffer

zone around Idlib to separate regime forces

from the rebels. The two countries will

send military police and drones to patrol a

strip 14-19kmwide. Rebels in this demilita-

rised zone will have to give up their heavy

weapons by October 10th. The jihadists of

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (

HTS

), the most pow-

erful rebel faction in the province, who are

linked to al-Qaeda, are to withdraw com-

pletely. Details are thin but the offensive,

for now, is off.

Both countries have an interest in

avoiding a full-blown assault. Turkey fears

a bloody bombing campaign will drive

many of the province’s 2m-3m people

across its shared border, adding to the 3.5m

refugees it already has. Since Russia is try-

ing to persuade the West to pay for recon-

structing Syria, backing an assault that kills

thousands of civilians would undercut its

argument that the Syrian regime is serious

about seeking a political settlement to end

thewar.

Much can go wrong. Turkey has less

than a month to persuade

HTS

to with-

draw from the buffer zone. If it fails, Russia

and the regime would feel justified in

launching a full-scale assault. Turkey’s pre-

vious efforts to weaken

HTS

have yielded

little. Drones from rebels in the province

still harass Russia’s main air base. The

HTS

leader, AbuMuhammad al-Jolani, has told

his followers that surrendering theirweap-

ons is akin to treason. Turkey will send

more troops to Idlib, but confronting the

group head-on risks provoking terrorist at-

tacks on its soil.

The Syrian regime may also seek to

spoil the deal. It has long vowed to retake

the entire country. Idlib is a tempting prize.

Its fall wouldmark the end of the rebellion.

Leaders of more moderate rebel groups in

Idlib, while broadly welcoming the deal,

say they fear Russia and the regimewill fail

to uphold their side of the bargain. They

have good reason. The regime, with Rus-

sia’s blessing, has broken previous cease-

fires and is busy arresting fighters in other

parts of the country who had surrendered

in return for amnesty.

Even if the deal holds, Russiawill find it

hard to marshal the competing interests of

foreign powers in Syria as it tries to bring

thewar to a close. Hours after the Idlib deal

was announced, Israel bombed a military

installation in Syria. Israel has launched

200-odd strikes in the past two years to

stop Iran from setting up a permanent mil-

itary presence in Syria. This time, though,

the target was unusually close to Russia’s

main air base, Khmeimim, on the Syrian

coast. Syrian air-defence batteries fired a

salvo of missiles at the Israeli jets but shot

down a Russian spy-plane instead, killing

all 15 of its crew.

Russia’s defence ministry furiously ac-

cused Israel of acting recklessly, saying the

Israeli planes had used the Russian one as

a shield. Hours later, however, President

Vladimir Putin soundedmore conciliatory.

The aircraft, he said, had been shot down

in “a chain of tragic circumstances”, and

not by Israel. So Russia’s “deconfliction”

agreement with Israel is intact. Israel will

not interferewithRussia’s campaign to res-

cue the Syrian regime; Russiawill give Isra-

el a more or less free rein to hit targets

linked to Iran and its Lebanese ally, Hizbul-

lah. But with jets from at least six coun-

tries—America, Britain, Israel, Russia, Syria

and Turkey—in the skies above Syria, the

risk of miscalculation remains dangerous-

ly high.

Syria’s war

Staving off slaughter

BEIRUT AND JERUSALEM

Can a deal betweenRussia and Turkey spare the rebels’ last big bastion?

IDLIB

S Y R I A

I R A Q

Damascus

T U R K E Y

J O R D A N

ISRAEL

LEBANON

Mediterranean

Sea

Russia’s

Khmeimim

air base

Beirut

Jerusalem

Government

Islamic

State

Kurds

Rebels

Turkish troops/

rebels

Hizbullah

dominated

Buffer zone

100 km

Areas of control

September 17th 2018

Sources: IHS Conflict

Monitor; Institute for the

Study of War; liveuamap