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The Economist May 5th 2018 37
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1
MOON JAE-IN is an optimist with an
eye for symbolism. When the South
Korean president travelled to Berlin in July
2017 to outline his strategy for easing ten-
sions on the Korean peninsula, he insisted
on speaking in a place that was associated
with German unity. Only two days earlier,
Kim JongUn, the North’s leader, had tested
his first intercontinental ballistic missile.
But Mr Moon made an impassioned case
for peace, hoping the roomwhere officials
fromEast andWestGermanyhadnegotiat-
ed the unification of their countries in1990
would convey his dreamof a united Korea.
The plan thatMrMoon outlined inGer-
many was easy to dismiss as rosy-specta-
cled. It included inviting a North Korean
delegation to the Winter Olympics in
South Korea, reviving reunions of separat-
ed families and possibly arranging a meet-
ing between himself and Mr Kim. If that
did not sound wishful enough, he also
called onNorth Korea to give up its nuclear
and missile programmes. In the ten
months since then, however, much of
what Mr Moon envisaged has become re-
ality. Well, sort of.
On April 27th Mr Kim and Mr Moon
met in the demilitarised zone (DMZ) be-
tween the two Koreas. Threats by North
Korea to turn Seoul into a “sea of fire” were
all but forgotten as Mr Kimmade history—
and melted South Korean hearts—by step-
pingover the dividing line, makinghimthe
first North Korean leader to enter the South
only concrete, verifiable actions by that
country’s regime, and never its words. Vet-
erans of talks with the North winced,
therefore, when Donald Trump, America’s
president, used a Rose Garden press con-
ference on April 30th to ponder aloud
where to fete his historic achievement,
should his planned summit lead to peace.
Some aides had suggested neutral ven-
ues for the summit like Singapore, the pres-
ident noted. But Mr Trump likes the DMZ
because “if things work out, there’s a great
celebration to be had, on the site.” To ex-
plain his showman’s sense that a “big
event” could be in the offing, Mr Trump
pointed to Mr Kim’s words, and specifical-
ly to the young dictator’s recent talkof end-
ing nuclear testing, ballistic-missile
launches and related research. He said Mr
Kim had “lived up to that for a longer per-
iod of time than anybody has seen”.
Nevermind the trivia
Actually, during previous cycles of pro-
mise-making and -breaking North Korea
has sometimes gone two-and-a-half years
between nuclear tests. Its most recent blast
was less than six months ago. But details
cannot slow Mr Trump when he senses a
win in the offing for which he can take
credit. And there yawns a great analytical
divide between aides who serve Mr
Trump today and veterans of previous
talkswithNorthKorea.WhenTeamTrump
contemplates the upcoming Trump-Kim
summit, they see a historic event that will
begin as awin for their boss—a vindication
of his unprecedented toughness.
Asked on FoxNews TV whether Ameri-
ca can possibly trust Mr Kim, Mike Pom-
peo, the newly confirmed secretary of
state, preferred to discuss a happier
thought: that the young North Korean
leader only “wants this meeting” because
of Mr Trump and the international co-
since the end of the hot phase of the Kore-
an war in 1953. The summit—only the third
of its kind and the first in a decade—al-
lowed many in the South to engage in a
willing suspension of disbelief and see Mr
Kim as an ebullient charmer, rather than a
despot who runs the world’s most reclu-
sive and repressive regime. The encounter,
broadcast live, drew applause and tears of
joy fromSouth Koreans.
And there was more than just theatrics,
or so it seemed. Days before the meeting
Mr Kim had declared an end to his testing
of long-range missiles and the closure of
his nuclear test site at Punggye-ri in the
north of the country. At the summit he told
MrMoon that SouthKorean andAmerican
experts—journalists even—would be invit-
ed to check that the Punggye-ri facility had
indeed been closed. And North Korea
would move to the same time-zone as the
South. A peninsula that recently had
seemedperilouslyclose toa resumptionof
warwas beginning, in the eyes ofmanyob-
servers in the South, tomove closer to last-
ing peace. A poll conducted after the sum-
mit suggested that 65% of South Koreans
trusted the North, up from just 15% before
the meeting. A different poll found that Mr
Moon’s approval rating had hit 86%, up
from 73%. On social media, people began
referring toMr Kimas “cute”.
But experience has taught American of-
ficials harsh lessons about North Korean
promises. The first andmost basic: to cheer
The Korean peninsula
Give peace a chance, redux
SEOUL AND WASHINGTON, DC
The Koreanhoneymoon ismore likely to end in tears than in celebrations
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