Econ_May_05

38 Asia

The Economist

May 5th 2018

alitionhehas assembled toput pressure on

him. The same thought was echoed by Mr

Trump’s hawkish new national security

adviser, John Bolton. Reminded that he

used to scorn the idea of deal-makingwith

North Korea, Mr Bolton listed world lead-

ers who have credited Mr Trump’s maxi-

mum-pressure campaign with bringing

about the summit.

Other Americans who have lived

through previous rounds of talks fear that

the summit begins as awin forMr Kim, not

Mr Trump. Daniel Russel, a former senior

diplomat and veteran of talks with the

North, believes that the Kim regime’s goal,

as so often before, is to seek acceptance

from the world that North Korea is now a

nuclear state. “For Kim Jong Un, summit

day is his payday. He has landed a seat at

the table as a peer,” says Mr Russel, now at

the Asia Society. There are ways for a sum-

mit to lead to somethingworth celebrating,

but they are slow and arduous, involving

such steps as Mr Kim listing all of his nuc-

lear and ballistic missile sites and agreeing

a timetable for their inspection and even-

tual destruction.

Trump-sceptics worry that his hunger

to strike a deal could lead him to accept far

flimsier terms. Mr Trump insists that he

will walk from the table if unsatisfied, and

continue his policy ofmaximum pressure.

But the coalition that created that pressure

is crumbling. China rolled out the red car-

pet forMr Kim inMarch, thawing relations

after a deep chill. It fears being left out by

Trumpian deal-making. As for last year’s

American vows not to tolerate the devel-

opment of North Korean nukes that could

hit American cities, it is hard to imagine

South Korea co-operating with pre-emp-

tive American military strikes against the

North, should the Kim-Trump summit end

badly. Mr Trump is wondering where to

celebrate a triumph. He will need luck and

skill to avoid a debacle.

T POLITICAL rallies the hungry have

been enjoying exotic fare—guavas,

macaroons, avocado juice—as they gather

on a sticky night in Johor, a southern state

that is a battleground between the ruling

BarisanNasional (

) coalitionand the op-

position Pakatan Harapan (

). They all

want to hear Mahathir Mohamad. “I fol-

lowhimeverywhere!” chirps a local clean-

er. “Whatever he does, whatever he says,

we support him,” gushes a group of stu-

dents. Dr Mahathir, a former prime minis-

ter who is 92, now leads

PH,

although he

once ran Malaysia on behalf of the United

Malays National Organisation (

UMNO

which has been in power formore than six

decades and is the

coalition’s main

party. Whether he can persuade voters to

switch allegiance on polling day, May 9th,

hangs in the balance.

The election is for the 222-seat parlia-

ment and for 12 of the 13 states’ assemblies.

Two-thirds of seats are reckoned to be tight

contests, up from about half in the previ-

ous election in 2013. The current prime

minister, Najib Razak, says it will be “the

motherofall elections”. He isprobably less

popular than any other Malaysian leader

has been just before an election. Dr Ma-

hathir expects it to be the “dirtiest” ever.

Racial politics will prevail. About 69%

of the population of 32m are Malay or be-

long to other indigenous groups known as

bumiputra

(“sons of the soil”). About 24%

are ethnic Chinese and 7% Indian. The

bu-

miputra

favour

UMNO

because a systemof

racial rules it created in the 1970s gives

them handouts and preferential access to

universities and government jobs. These

preferences were initially described as

temporary but have become impossible to

abolish. Theywin votes: at the last election

64%ofMalays voted for

UMNO

, while 80%

of ethnic Chinese backed the opposition.

Freebies and quotas may matter more

toMalays than anything else. Since the last

election journalists have revealed that a

stunning $4.5bn disappeared from a state

development fund, while almost $700m

entered Mr Najib’s personal bank account.

He denies any wrongdoing, saying the

money was a gift, eventually returned,

from an unnamed Saudi prince. The scan-

dal seems scarcely to bother voters. Dr Ma-

hathir blasts corruption, though he did not

exactly stamp it out while in power.

Votersworrymore about the cost of liv-

ing, even though the economy has grown

robustly in recent years. Housing and fuel

costs, creeping inflation through much of

last year and an unpopular goods-and-ser-

vices tax of 6% introduced since the last

election all irk them. The price of

kem-

bong

—Indian mackerel, a staple—is more

than twice what it was three years ago. Mr

Najib says the country must stick with the

GST

since it brought in 45bn ringgit

($10.5bn) last year; the opposition says it

would replace it with an alternative. Mr

Najibhas offeredbigvotinggroups, suchas

civil servants, billions of ringgit in bonuses

and other goodies to soothe them.

Mr Najib has been crafty, too. His gov-

ernment has gerrymandered electoral

boundaries to enhance the

’s chances.

Opposition voters in the Malayan penin-

sula can find themselves packed into con-

stituencies of more than 100,000 people.

Government loyalists are typically in far

smaller ones of fewer than 30,000. And

just before parliament was dissolved, it

passed a bill against “fake news” that could

criminalise criticism of the government

during the campaign if a court finds it con-

tains errors.

Shenanigans over the registration of

parties have affected both sides. Dr Ma-

hathir founded his own party, Bersatu, in

2016. Last month the Registrar of Societies,

a government agency, temporarily halted

its activities, saying it had not provided the

proper paperwork. Bersatu sued the agen-

cy and persuaded the court to block the

suspension on April 23rd. Meanwhile 16

members of

UMNO

sought to declare their

own party illegal because it had failed in

recent years to hold internal elections for

the leadership; a similar case saw an earli-

er incarnation of

UMNO

dissolved in

1987—onDrMahathir’swatch.

The government must reverse a trend

ofdipping support ifit is towinagain. Ade-

cade ago

lost its two-thirds majority in

parliament; at the election in 2013 it lost the

popular vote too. This time around, the rul-

ing coalition has cosied up to an erstwhile

foe, the Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party (

PAS

which has long denounced

UMNO

PAS

governs the poor rural state of Kelantan

andwants to imposemore caning and oth-

er traditional Islamic punishments. It says

it will run candidates in158 seats; the ensu-

ing three-way fights could split the opposi-

Malaysia’s election

The old man’s last challenge

PASIR GUDANG

The ruling coalition is bent on fending offMahathirMohamad

Nonagenarian, and fighting

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