Econ_Sep_22

24 United States

The Economist

September 22nd 2018

an obscure opponent in this year’s prim-

ary.MrMenendez’sRepublican challenger,

BobHugin, has been close in some polls. In

NewMexico, whichMr Trump lost byeight

points, Gary Johnson—a Libertarian candi-

date and a popular ex-governor—could

win by attracting Republicans and a criti-

cal mass of moderate Democrats disen-

chanted with Martin Heinrich, the Demo-

cratic incumbent. The other 14 seats in this

category look fairly safe.

There are plenty of other ways for the

party to drop a seat or two, however. The

most likely losses are where Democratic

incumbents are running in states that Mr

Trumpwon in 2016.

Mr Trump took the bellwether states of

Pennsylvania, Ohio andMichigan, but Bob

Casey, Sherrod Brown and Debbie Stabe-

now, the states’ respective Democratic in-

cumbents, all enjoy comfortable polling

leads. Tammy Baldwin’s lead inWisconsin

is slightly shakier, but still solid. Mr Trump

won Montana and West Virginia by wide

margins, but the Democratic incumbents

there, Jon Tester and Joe Manchin respec-

tively, are farther ahead than either demog-

raphy or their states’ political leanings sug-

gest they should be.

In North Dakota, Heidi Heitkamp is

running headlong into Mr Trump’s high

approval rating in her state, though that

could falter ifmanufacturers and soyabean

farmers feel pain from tariffs. Joe Donnelly

clings to a slim lead in Indiana and Claire

McCaskill is tied in Missouri, both states

which supported Mr Trump by wide mar-

gins. It is fairly likely that the Democrats

will lose at least one of these, offsetting

possible gains elsewhere.

And then, in a category all by itself,

there is Florida. Mr Trump won the Sun-

shine State narrowly. RickScott, a two-term

Republican governor with deep pockets, is

trying to unseat Bill Nelson, the uninspir-

ing Democratic incumbent, in what may

become the most expensive Senate race in

history. Democrats could hold what they

have already and pick up a seat in Trump

country yet, if Florida again has the final

say, still fall short of theirmajority.

Golden tickets

Senate seats up for election, 2018

NY MA

NV WY

SD IA

CT RI

CA UT

MD DE

NC SC

AL GA

Source:

The Economist

MT ND

OH PA

MO WV

States won by Donald Trump in 2016 where

Democratic Senate candidates are competitive

Democratic primaries

The centre can hold

“C

HANGE can’t wait,” repeated

Ayanna Pressley after defeating

Michael Capuano, a ten-term incumbent,

in her Democratic primary. Threemonths

earlier, AlexandriaOcasio-Cortez

pledged that her victory over Joseph

Crowley, a 20-year incumbent, was “the

beginning” ofMedicare for all and other

progressive policies in America. To the

naked eye, months of left-wing victories

in primary elections have placed the

Democratic Party on a newpath towards

democratic socialism. This ismisleading.

The lesson of this year’s primaries is that

Democratic voters are pragmatistswho

pick the candidatemost likely towin,

rather than the onewho seems themost

likely heir to Karl Marx.

Ever since an exodus ofwhite conser-

vative southerners from the Democratic

Party in the 1960s, objecting to the civil-

rightsmovement, the party hasmain-

tained a fragile balance between a co-

alition of different demographic and

social groups. Left-leaning college educat-

edwhites, blue-collar social conserva-

tives and nonwhites—especiallyAfrican

Americans—unite under the Democratic

banner to elect candidateswho reflect a

wide array of interests.

Because the party ismade up of a

coalition of interests fromdiverse back-

grounds, ideological debates have not

typically becomewedge issues for the

Democrats. Whereas being pro-choice is

nearly a death sentence for a Republican

candidate, a Democrat can take a pro-gun

position in 2018 and still find a friendly

electorate (Conor Lamb in Pennsylvania

is a good example). There is plenty of

room for ideological disagreement inside

the Democrats’ big tent. According to the

PewResearch Centre, just under half of

Democrats describe themselves as liberal

(meaning leftish), comparedwith two-

thirds ofRepublicanswho say they are

conservative. Democratic voters are far

frombeing the no-compromise liberals

that the victories ofMs Cortez andMs

Pressleymight suggest.

That said, the party hasmoved left-

ward a bit. The same PewResearch Cen-

tre study found that 28% of partisans

described themselves as liberal in 2000,

comparedwith 46% in 2017. The candi-

dates havemoved, too.

The Economist

’s

analysis of ameasure of candidate ideol-

ogy, developed byAdamBonica of Stan-

fordUniversity, finds that the average

Democratic primary-winner in 2018 is

indeedmore liberal than in 2016 (see

chart). Democratic candidates are also

more scattered over the ideological spec-

trum than they have been in recent years.

Ahigher share are either extremely liber-

al or atypicallymoderate comparedwith

previous cycles.

Data fromThirdWay, a centre-left

think-tank, show that candidates en-

dorsed by the progressive groups Our

Revolution and Justice Democratswon

their primaries nomore than 37% of the

time. Most of those victories came in

places Republicans are almost certain to

win. On the other hand, candidates

belonging to themoderate NewDemo-

crat Coalition or those endorsed by the

party establishment won 71of their 78

primaries. JimKessler of ThirdWay says

that voterswere looking for fresh faces,

not necessarily for liberal ones.

A statistical analysis ofMr Bonica’s

ideological scores reveals that the left-

ward drift of the Democratic Party has

not resulted in primary voters placing

muchweight on left-wing ideology.

Votersweremore inclined to reward

women, incumbents and candidates

who seemed a good fit for their districts.

Ms Pressley is right: change has not

waited for Democrats. However, this

change does not favour democratic so-

cialists. It favourswomen, non-whites

and party bigwigs. Indeed, to the pos-

sible dismay of the left, the centre ap-

pears to be holding.

WASHINGTON, DC

The triumph of far-left candidates has been greatlyoverstated

Swing left

Sources: Professor Adam Bonica;

The Economist

United States, distribution of ideology of House

candidates who won their primaries

1980

1990

2000

2010

2018

More conservative

More liberal

Democrats

Republicans