Econ_Sep_22_2018

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The Economist September 22nd 2018 23
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1
IN A year that has seen huge numbers of
women and minority candidates step
forward for the Democrats, the party’s
hopes of retaking the Senate may rest on
the shoulders of a 74-year-old white man
in a pinstripe suit. Phil Bredesen (pictured
above, right) served two terms each as Ten-
nessee’s governor and Nashville’s mayor;
he is running against Marsha Blackburn, a
staunchly conservative eight-term con-
gresswoman, for the seat that Bob Corker’s
retirement has left open. Although Donald
Trump won Tennessee by 26 points, and
the state last elected a Democrat (Al Gore)
to the Senate in 1990, polls have shown a
surprisingly close race.
During an evening spent answering
questions submitted by an overwhelm-
ingly supportive audience, progressive
worries rose like balloons—and Mr Brede-
sen wielded the pins. What would he do
about health-insurance firms who deny
coverage to peoplewithpre-existing condi-
tions? The problem is not with insurance
companies, said Mr Bredesen (a former
health-insurance company boss); they
have a business to run. Howwould he pro-
tect DREAMers? Bothparties bore responsi-
bility for their plight. Did he believe that
black lives matter? Of course, but being a
police officer was also a dangerous job.
Since he said hewouldworkwith the pres-
ident when he did something good, could
dent, not quite smiling: “By spending a
minimumamount of time talking to you.”
Apart from Tennessee, the Democrats’
best hopes ofmaking gains are probably in
Arizona and Nevada. In Arizona, Martha
McSally had to tack right towin the Repub-
lican primary occasioned by JeffFlake’s re-
tirement; her opponent, Kyrsten Sinema,
grabbed the centre. And in Nevada, Dean
Heller is among the least popular incum-
bent Republican senators.
If November brings not just a wave but
a tsunami, other gains are possible. In Tex-
as Beto O’Rourke’s preternatural political
gifts and hard work have forced Ted Cruz
into a tougher campaign than he probably
expected. Unfortunately for the upstart,
there are a lot more Republicans than
Democrats in Texas. Unfortunately for Mr
Cruz, he has appeared craven in begging
for the president’s support (Mr Cruz once
called Mr Trump “a pathological liar”).
There is even a narrow path to victory for
Mike Espy in Mississippi. First, increase
turnout from African-Americans. Then
hope his opponent is Chris McDaniel, a di-
visive neo-Confederate who might just
disgust enoughwhite voters, as RoyMoore
did in Alabama late last year.
It is not hard to see how Democrats
could win two seats from this selection.
Their greater difficulty lies in holding on to
what they have already.
Democrats will retain most of the seats
they have in states Hillary Clinton won.
Only New Jersey and New Mexico could
give them a nasty surprise. Mr Trump lost
New Jersey, which last elected a Republi-
can to the Senate in 1972, by 14 points. But
Bob Menendez, running for his third full
term, was indicted on federal corruption
charges three years ago. His trial ended in a
hung jury. He lost nearly 40% of the vote to
he name one thing? Deregulation sounded
good, and by the way, he was sorry Ameri-
ca hadwithdrawn from the TPP.
To win a majority in the Senate, Demo-
crats need a net gain of two seats (because
the vice-president breaks Senate ties, a
50-50 split leaves Republicans in control).
The party has no right to be even contem-
plating such an outcome. Every two years
a third of the Senate is elected. Theway the
calendar falls, in 2018 Democrats ought to
be in the brace position. The party is de-
fending 26 seats—including those ofAngus
King and Bernie Sanders, two indepen-
dents who caucus with the Democrats—
compared with the Republicans’ nine. The
strong economy ought to be helping the
president’s party. And yet Mr Trump is so
unpopular that Democrats have a chance
ofwinning theirmajority.
Frog kissing
A handful of Democrats are in the Brede-
sen mould: candidates who look competi-
tive despite the fact that Mr Trump won
their states comfortably. Mr Bredesen de-
scribes the strategy in states like Tennessee
thus: “If this is a race between Marsha
Blackburn andme, I’ll win it. If this is a race
between a Democrat and a Republi-
can…I’ll lose that race.” Asked how he
keeps national attention to aminimum, he
looks across the table at your correspon-
The Senate
No fairy tale
MEMPHIS
If theDemocrats are to retake the Senate, theywill do itwithmoderates
United States
Also in this section
24 Analysing Democratic primaries
25 Foreign lobbying in DC
26 Nevada’s brothels
27 Black Lives Matter
28 Lexington: Brett Kavanaugh