Econ_May_05

The Economist

May 5th 2018

Middle East and Africa 47

EWpoliticians enjoy a selfie as much as

Lebanon’s prime minister, Saad Hariri

(pictured). On the campaign trail before a

general election on May 6th, Mr Hariri has

clambered atop cars, posed with fans and

cuddled up to children in search ofthe best

snap of himself. At a rally last month he

promised some 6,000 women that he

would pose with each of them should he

win. A recently released mobile-phone

app allows supporters to upload their sel-

fies with the prime minister, though most

of the shots posted so far appear to be ones

Mr Hariri has taken.

It is no wonder he is excited. Lebanon

has gone nine yearswithout a general elec-

tion. One was due in 2013 but postponed

three times as

s failed to agree on a new

electoral law, squabbled over the election

ofa president anddebatedwhich side they

should back in Syria’s civil war. The politi-

cal deadlockparalysed decision-making as

the economy stagnated. Meanwhile popu-

lar anger over a lack of basic services has

grown.

Some hope that the new electoral law

(agreed to last year), which institutes a par-

tial system of proportional representation,

will make it easier for reformers to win

seats. A number of candidates want to get

rid of the system whereby political power

is divided among Lebanon’s religious

sects,with thepresident always aMaronite

Christian, the prime minister a Sunni and

the speaker of parliament a Shia. The re-

formers’ message of secular change and a

return to the rule of law goes down well

with middle-class families. But the poor,

who rely on the patronage of politicians

from their own sect, seemunlikely to gam-

ble on relatively unknown outsiders.

So Mr Hariri, a Sunni, is expected to re-

main prime minister. His personal popu-

larity grew in November, when he was

seemingly held against his will in Riyadh

and forced to resign by his Saudi patrons.

Weeks later he triumphantly returned to

Beirut and rescinded his resignation. But

his Future Movement may lose seats. The

Saudis have pulled their financial support

for Mr Hariri, who heads a government

that includes Hizbullah, the Shia militia-

cum-party that is backed by the Saudis’

arch-rival, Iran. That arrangement has also

upset some Sunnis at home.

Analysts expect Hizbullah to remain

one of the country’s most powerful politi-

cal forces. Its forceful intervention in Syria

on the side of President Bashar al-Assad

has dented its pan-Arab appeal and left it

with less money to spend at home. But the

party’s political alliances are stronger than

those of its rivals. And the debate over

whether Hizbullah should be allowed to

keep its weapons has died down, even

thoughmany Lebanese are uncomfortable

with its growing clout.

Even voters in Lebanon’s poorest areas

seem inclined to re-elect the politicians

who have overseen the country’s decline.

Fewhave suffered more than the residents

of Tripoli, in the north, but they do not see

the election as an opportunity to change

the government. Rather, it is away to boost

their meagre incomes. “I will wait to see

which politician pays me the most,” says

AhmedHaidar, who lost his job at the local

steel factorywhen it closed decades ago.

Lebanon’s election

Selfie-perpetuating

BEIRUT AND TRIPOLI

The primeministervows topose for 6,000 selfies ifhewins. Butwill the electricity

work, or the rubbish get collected?

HEN the bombing finally stops, little

will remain of Palestine’s capital-in-

exile. Yarmouk, on the southern edge of

Damascus, Syria’s capital, was once the

Palestinians’ largest and liveliest refugee

camp, sheltering displaced Iraqis and Syri-

ans too. But twoweeks of relentless bomb-

ing by the regime of Bashar al-Assad and

his Russian backers has reduced it to rub-

ble. Of the 350,000 people who once lived

in Yarmouk, only a fewhundred remain.

Syria used to treat the Palestinians well.

They were provided with health care and

education and allowed to own homes.

Many worked for the government. Mr As-

sad gave Palestinian security forces arms

and training to police their camps. Khaled

Meshal, the leader of Hamas, the Palestin-

ian Islamistmovement, hadmore access to

the president thanmost of the cabinet.

ButwhenMrMeshal sidedwithhisQa-

tari financiers, who backed Syria’s Islamist

rebels after the uprising in 2011, Mr Assad

and his men fumed at the treachery. They

blasted Hamas for using its tunnelling

skills to dig escape routes for the rebels.

Some of its members fought with more

radical groups. In 2015 the jihadists of Is-

lamic State (

) took control ofmost of Yar-

mouk. Jabhat al-Nusra, an erstwhile al-

Qaeda affiliate, grabbed the rest. When the

regime was not fighting them, they battled

each other.

The latest combat is on a different level.

More has been damaged in a fortnight, say

residents, than in the previous four years.

Al-Nusra’s fighters surrendered to the gov-

ernment on April 30th and boarded buses

bound for Idlib, a rebel redoubt in the

north. Its arsenal all but spent,

is negoti-

ating a similar deal, though it does not

want to go to Idlib.

Many Palestinians believe the regime

wants to redevelop Yarmouk—for use by

Syrians. In March the government un-

veiled the second stage of a plan to rebuild

southern Damascus, including areas that

run along the camp’s edge. Businessmen

eye opportunities. Some suggest relocating

the Palestinians to distant scrubland.

Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian presi-

dent, has remained neutral during Syria’s

war and some Palestinian groups even

fought with the regime on the camp’s

frontlines. But there is little hope that

things will return to the way they were.

“We’ll increasingly face a climate in which

we cannot continue to live,” says a refugee

fromYarmouk, now in London.

Palestinians in Syria

Refugees again

DAMASCUS

Syria is erasing the Palestinians’ largest

refugee camp

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