Econ_Sep_22

The Economist

September 22nd 2018

“G

OD is Brazilian,” goes a

saying that became the

title of a popular film. Brazil’s

beauty, natural wealth and mu-

sic often make it seem uniquely

blessed. But these days Brazil-

ians must wonder whether, like

the deity in the film, God has

gone on holiday. The economy is a disaster, the public finances

are under strainandpolitics are thoroughly rotten. Street crime

is rising, too. Seven Brazilian cities feature in the world’s 20

most violent.

The national elections next month give Brazil the chance to

start afresh. Yet if, as seems all too possible, victory goes to Jair

Bolsonaro, a right-wing populist, they risk making everything

worse. Mr Bolsonaro, whosemiddle name isMessias, or “Mes-

siah”, promises salvation; in fact, he is amenace toBrazil and to

Latin America.

MrBolsonaro is the latest inaparade ofpopulists—fromDo-

nald Trump in America, to Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines

anda left-right coalition featuringMatteoSalvini in Italy. InLat-

in America, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, a left-wing fire-

brand, will take office in Mexico in December. Mr Bolsonaro

would be a particularly nasty addition to the club (see Brief-

ing).Were he towin, itmight put the very survival of democra-

cy in LatinAmerica’s largest country at risk.

Brazilian bitterness

Populists draw on similar grievances. A failing economy is

one—and in Brazil the failure has been catastrophic. In the

worst recession in its history,

GDP

per person shrank by10% in

2014-16 and has yet to recover. The unemployment rate is 12%.

The whiff of elite self-dealing and corruption is another griev-

ance—and in Brazil it is a stench. The interlocking investiga-

tions known as Lava Jato (Car Wash) have discredited the en-

tire political class. Scores ofpoliticians are under investigation.

Michel Temer, who became Brazil’s president in 2016 after his

predecessor, Dilma Rousseff, was impeached on unrelated

charges, has avoided trial by the supreme court only because

congress voted to spare him. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, another

former president, was jailed for corruption and disqualified

from running in the election. Brazilians tell pollsters that the

words which best sum up their country are “corruption”,

“shame” and “disappointment”.

Mr Bolsonaro has exploited their fury brilliantly. Until the

Lava Jato scandals, he was an undistinguished seven-term

congressman fromthe state ofRiode Janeiro. He has a longhis-

tory of being grossly offensive. He said he would not rape a

congresswoman because she was “very ugly”; he said he

would prefer a dead son to a gay one; and he suggested that

people who live in settlements founded by escaped slaves are

fat and lazy. Suddenly that willingness to break taboos is being

taken as evidence that he is different from the political hacks in

the capital city, Brasília.

To Brazilians desperate to rid themselves of corrupt politi-

cians and murderous drug dealers, Mr Bolsonaro presents

himself as a no-nonsense sheriff. An evangelical Christian, he

mixes social conservatismwith economic liberalism, towhich

he has recently converted. Hismain economic adviser is Paulo

Guedes, whowas educated at theUniversityofChicago, a bas-

tion of free-market ideas. He favours the privatisation of all

Brazil’s state-owned companies and “brutal” simplification of

taxes. Mr Bolsonaro proposes to slash the number of minis-

tries from 29 to 15, and to put generals in charge of some of

them.

His formula is winning support. Polls give him 28% of the

vote and he is the clear front-runner in a crowded field for the

first round of the elections on October 7th. This month he was

stabbed in the stomach at a rally, which put him in hospital.

That only made him more popular—and shielded him from

closer scrutiny by themedia and his opponents. Ifhe faces Fer-

nandoHaddad, the nominee ofLula’s left-wingWorkers’ Party

(

) in the second round at the end of the month, many mid-

dle- and upper-class voters, who blame Lula and the

above

all for Brazil’s troubles, could be driven into his arms.

The Pinochet temptation

They should not be fooled. In addition to his illiberal social

views, Mr Bolsonaro has a worrying admiration for dictator-

ship. He dedicatedhis vote to impeachMs Rousseffto the com-

mander of a unit responsible for 500 cases of torture and 40

murders under the military regime, which governed Brazil

from 1964 to 1985. Mr Bolsonaro’s running-mate is Hamilton

Mourão, a retired general, who last year, while in uniform,

mused that the army might intervene to solve Brazil’s pro-

blems. Mr Bolsonaro’s answer to crime is, in effect, to kill more

criminals—though, in 2016, police killed over 4,000 people.

Latin America has experimented before with mixing au-

thoritarian politics and liberal economics. Augusto Pinochet, a

brutal rulerofChile between1973 and1990,was advisedby the

free-marketeer “Chicagoboys”. Theyhelped lay the ground for

today’s relative prosperity in Chile, but at terrible human and

social cost. Brazilians have a fatalism about corruption,

summed up in the phrase “rouba, mas faz” (“he steals, but he

acts”). They should not fall for Mr Bolsonaro—whose dictum

might be “they tortured, but they acted”. Latin America has

known all sorts of strongmen, most of them awful. For recent

proof, lookonly to the disasters in Venezuela andNicaragua.

Mr Bolsonaro might not be able to convert his populism

into Pinochet-style dictatorship even if he wanted to. But Bra-

zil’s democracy is still young. Even a flirtationwith authoritar-

ianism is worrying. All Brazilian presidents need a coalition in

congress to pass legislation. Mr Bolsonaro has few political

friends. To govern, he could be driven to degrade politics still

further, potentially paving theway for someone still worse.

Instead of falling for the vain promises of a dangerous poli-

tician in the hope that he can solve all their problems, Brazil-

ians should realise that the task of healing their democracy

and reforming their economy will be neither easy nor quick.

Some progress has beenmade—such as a ban on corporate do-

nations to parties and a freeze on federal spending. A lot more

reform is needed. Mr Bolsonaro is not theman to provide it.

Latin America’s latest menace

JairBolsonarowouldmake a disastrous president ofBrazil

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