Econ_Sep_22

The Economist

September 22nd 2018

Asia 35

EVER let anyone accuse President

Abdulla Yameen of leaving things to

chance. He was first elected to run the

Maldives in 2013 by a wafer-thin margin—

just 6,000 votes. The story of his time at

the head of this atoll nation of 400,000

people spread over a vast expanse of the

Indian Ocean has been one of deter-

mined entrenchment. It is a story about

the path towards full-blown dictatorship.

During his time in power, Mr Yameen

has hounded not only the opposition but

also rivals within his own coalition. He

has closedParliament. Hehas stampedon

the last shreds of a free press. And he has

courted Saudi Arabia and China, who

have his back.

In his boldest act, in February, Mr Ya-

meen suspended much of the constitu-

tion and declared a state of emergency in

order to annul a Supreme Court ruling

that quashed the convictions of nine op-

position members. Among them was the

Maldives’ first democratically elected

leader, Mohamed Nasheed, who fled into

exile following an obscure coup just be-

foreMr Yameen’s rise to power.

If you are a dictator, why not flaunt it

and simply abolish elections? That is not

Mr Yameen’s style: a presidential election

takesplace onSeptember 23rd. Perhapshe

worries about what remains of the Mal-

dives’ standing in the West, which threat-

ens sanctions over human-rights abuses.

More probably he thinks an election is

less a threat to his authority than ameans

to beef it up. More political and financial

resources flow to a winner, while defeat

divides and weakens the opposition. Au-

thoritarian leaders can find elections use-

ful. If they hold elections without losing,

as Nic Cheeseman and Brian Klaas put it

in “HowtoRig an Election”, they canhave

their cake and eat it. Asmore elections are

being held around the world, more are

being rigged.

As for Mr Yameen’s rigging, where to

begin? Given the enforced absence of Mr

Nasheed, Mr Yameen knew that the oppo-

sitionwould end upwith a less charismat-

ic candidate. Ibrahim “Ibu” Mohamed So-

lih, solid and honest, is never going to set

the house on fire. Government-backed

thugs intimidate opposition members.

Vote-buying is blatant. Meanwhile, the

opening of projects that redound to the

president’s credit has been timed to coin-

cide with the campaign. They include a

newChina-backed bridge linking the capi-

tal, Malé, to the international airport. Mr

Yameen is onlynowunveiling social-hous-

ing projects completed ages ago. Appli-

cants for flats are being asked pointedly

what they thinkof the government.

Should all that not be enough, the Elec-

tions Commission is in the hands of one of

Mr Yameen’s right-handmen. Itsmembers

cheer at Yameen rallies. This week it an-

nounced that observers will not be al-

lowed to monitor vote-tallying, as they

were in previous elections. Foreign report-

ers must jump through many hoops to

qualify for a visa, including presenting a

police certificate of good character. “Puni-

tive measures” are promised for those

who sneak in as holidaymakers.

For all that, Mr Yameen has a problem:

you still have to be vaguely popular to

win even a rigged election. Bumping 5%

of the vote your way is one thing; bump-

ing four times that is quite another. Oppo-

sition polling puts Mr Yameen’s support

at just 30%. His efforts, in other words, are

not guaranteed to succeed. Just ask Najib

Razak, Malaysia’s former prime minister.

Before the election in May, Mr Najib’s

party, which had ruled since indepen-

dence, intimidated the opposition,

bought votes and massively gerryman-

dered constituencies. Yet, in a huge upset,

Mr Najib still lost.

The Maldives and Malaysia are far

from the only countries that rig elections

in Asia—indeed more rig them than not.

Even Singapore, where vote-counts are

squeaky clean, hounds critics and threat-

ens to withhold upgrades to public hous-

ing in districts that vote for the opposi-

tion. But are all cases as bad as each other?

Patently not. One test is to askhowpeace-

ably a former ruler is likely to sleep

should he ever fall frompower.

Should his People’s Action Party (

PAP

)

ever lose its grip, Singapore’s Lee Hsien

Loong would probably be able to cycle

around Singapore untroubled. (Though

why, youwonder, does the

PAP

holdon so

tenaciously?)MrYameen, by contrast, has

as much to fear as Mr Najib. Both men

have been accused of taking money from

murky sources. Questionshangoverboth

about human rights. Mr Najib now faces

charges, among them of money-launder-

ing. The courts aswell as the former oppo-

sition would surely come after Mr Ya-

meen. For leaders like them, rigging

elections is not just a matter of staying in

power. It’s about staying out of prison.

Stuffing the ballot boxes

Banyan

ManyAsian leaders thinkelections are too important tobe left to voters

Pyongyang train tickets superimposed on

amap of the peninsula and promised “fur-

ther miracles”. The leaders also vowed to

reduce military tensions. A 55-page adden-

dumsignedby their defenceministers stip-

ulated the movement of guard posts away

from the border and the end ofmilitary ex-

ercises near it, among other things. Chung

Eui-yong, Mr Moon’s national security ad-

viser, called it “effectively a non-aggression

pact”.

The economic measures set out in the

agreement cannot be implemented with-

out an easing of international sanctions,

however. That would require American

support. Mr Moon had hoped to get Mr

Kim to announce bold steps towards giv-

ing up his nuclear weapons, to help con-

vince America that the North was sincere.

On this the agreement was less eye-catch-

ing. Mr Kim promised to dismantle the

missile-testing site at Dongchang-ri in the

presence of “experts from relevant coun-

tries” and, should America make recipro-

cal concessions, to close theYongbyonnuc-

lear site. But he made no mention of an

inventory of his nuclear arsenal or a time-

line to dismantle it. As it stands, the agree-

ment is unlikely to persuade America to

ease sanctions or sign a peace treaty, even

though Mr Trump pronounced it “very ex-

citing” in a tweet.

“What matters now is if Kim offered

anything extra forMoon to take to Trump,”

says Christopher Green of the Internation-

al Crisis Group, a think-tank. Mr Moon is

meeting Mr Trump in a few days, and may

have an offer of some sort to convey. But

the gap between America’s expectations

and the North’s is getting harder to bridge.

As he surveyed the peninsula from the top

ofMount Paektu, a stroll upwhichwas the

final stop onhis trip to theNorth, MrMoon

may have been wondering whether his

success as amediator has peaked.