Econ_June_09

The Economist

June 9th 2018

For daily analysis and debate on Asia, visit

Economist.com/asia

HENa great power promises a small-

er country a “win-win” deal, dip-

lomats mordantly joke, that means the

great power plans to win twice. Yet the

summit between America and North Ko-

rea in Singapore on June12thmay prove an

exception: a negotiation that could con-

ceivably allow not only the two main pro-

tagonists to preen and claim victory, but

that might also please several interested

observers. Both South Korea and China

have high hopes for the meeting. Japan is

more suspicious. But the biggest loser, if a

deal is struck, is likely to be totally ob-

scuredby the flashing cameras and swoon-

ing anchors: the American-led security ar-

chitecture that has brought decades of

stability to Asia.

The summit is takingplace in a poshho-

tel on Sentosa Island, a resort district con-

nected to the rest of Singapore by bridge,

cable-car and monorail. Close at hand are

many golf courses, beaches, a wax muse-

um and a Universal Studios theme park,

complete with a space ride billed as an

“intergalactic battle between good and

evil” and “Revenge oftheMummy”, which

promises a “plunge into total darkness”.

“Sentosa” is a Malay word meaning

“peace” or “tranquility”. This is seen as a

good omen in South Korea, where fortune-

tellers and pregnant symbolismare held in

young Mr Kim seem keen to make it so.

Simply meeting face-to-face will allow

them to crow about their fortitude and

foresight in forcing the other to the table.

The White House staked early bragging

rights on June 4th. TeamTrumpmarked the

boss’s 500thday inoffice—or as aides put it,

“President Donald J. Trump’s 500 days of

American Greatness”—with an assertion

that the American-led campaign to tighten

sanctions on North Korea over the past

18 months is responsible for pushing the

North closer than ever before to giving up

its deadly arsenal. UnderMr Trump, Amer-

ica has pursued a policy of “maximum

pressure” on theNorth, including threats to

rain “fire and fury” on it should it persist in

its intransigence.

Back in his Stalinist dystopia, Mr Kim

has peddled a conflicting but equally stir-

ring story, says a scholar from a Chinese

government-sponsored think-tank who

travels to North Korea several times a year.

“Kim Jong Un has told the North Korean

elites that when they kept testing nuclear

weapons and missiles last year, the aim

was to force the United States to the table,”

the scholar says. “So theNorthKoreanpeo-

ple think this is a victory for Kim Jong Un.”

Kodakmoment

Beyond the immediate photo-ops, how-

ever, it is not clear what the summit will

yield. American veterans of Korea talks

have aired all sorts of possible induce-

ments to get Mr Kim to disarm: the loosen-

ing of sanctions, big dollops of aid and in-

vestment, a formal peace treaty to end the

Korean war, establishing diplomatic rela-

tions in the form of “interests sections”

(one step short of embassies). Mr Trump

has talkedofoffering “very strong” guaran-

high regard. The island only acquired its

current name in 1972, however, with help

from Singapore’s tourism board. Before

that, it was known as “Pulau Blakang

Mati”, which translates as “Island of death

frombehind”.

Diplomacy between America and

North Korea has always had a surreal edge.

At a powwow in 2000 in Pyongyang, the

North Korean capital, Madeleine Albright,

then America’s secretary of state, was

greeted with mass callisthenics and bayo-

net drills. The two sides have been negoti-

ating over the North’s nuclear-weapons

programme since 1992, when Kim Il Sung,

the grandfather of the current despot, Kim

Jong Un, was in power (see timeline on

next page). The North has broken many

promises to forgo nuclear arms. Korea-

watchers have long debated whether the

Kim regime sees nuclear weapons as vital

to its survival, or rather as useful leverage

over the outside world. After all, the

North’s ability to pound the capital of the

South, Seoul, with thousands of dug-in ar-

tillery pieces has given it decades of deter-

rencewithout nukes.

Either way, the “complete, verifiable

and irreversible disarmament” that Amer-

ica seeks is probably out of reach. But the

summit could still be declared a success, as

both President Donald Trump and the

The Trump-Kim summit

Pushing the envelope

BEIJING and SEOUL

Talks betweenAmerica andNorthKoreamight succeed, but at an alarming price

Asia

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